A couple of Gartner Research analysts said recently what a lot of people have been thinking for a while: Microsoft Windows is in danger of losing relevance. Windows is still huge of course, and Linux still isn’t a big threat on the desktop (even though it’s free), and the Mac, as great as it is, still has a far smaller (but growing) market share. It really comes down to this: People are tired of the Windows way—the bugs, the flaky documentation, the need for proprietary code—and with the rise of legitimate, productive open source applications and the web browser as the platform, we have an alternative. The real question is how long it will take for the Enterprise market to make the shift and wean themselves from Redmond.

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A security researcher at Computer Associates has published some
juicy information about Facebook’s new Beacon Advertising system. Some are shocked at the idea that their online behavior is being tracked and reported to Facebook by Beacon affiliate websites, even when they are not logged into Facebook. This was a litmus test by Facebook as they seek ways to monetize the site, but damage control is needed after a raft of high profile criticism. Frankly, I’m surprised at the level of negative reaction. Interesting (and slightly creepy?) stuff.

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The idea behind the Web 2.0 Address Book concept is to facilitate greater interconnectivity across the communication and social networking landscapes. In essence, technologies and techniques that would bring together the various ways of connecting with people (phone, email, IM, smoke signals, etc… [well okay, not smoke signals]).

Demand would drive adoption of this paradigm, but would people want this? If they do, en masse, that would mean that social networking has legs long-term. However, I believe that there is a critical mass of social networking that will be reached by most people who don’t want to, or don’t have time to, spend hours looking at friend’s photos or listening to a someone else’s favorite new song. My guess is that the single digital identity will become a reality, but it will be less integrated than advocates hope for. Visit OpenID for more information on the progress of this effort and a list of websites that already support it.

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Or how about $15 billion? That’s the valuation Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg is reportedly seeking. According to reports, Zuckerberg was seen heading to Seattle to meet with Microsoft about buying a stake in Facebook. Google is also considered a suitor.

Whether Facebook is the face of a new Internet bubble or of the coming paradigm in online advertising is a question that analysts, investors, and other inquisitive types seek to answer. I am not going to attempt to answer it but I will say this: I’m not a big Facebook user. For me, Facebook doesn’t offer enough value for me to participate on a significant level at this time. Sure, I have a profile, and I believe social networking sites and user-generated content have a future on the web. But I question whether the soaring popularity (and hype) that has made Facebook so strong — 42 million users currently — will be able to support the aspirations that its founder and prospective advertisers have for it.

Facebook’s numbers in the past year have been encouraging, with a significant increase in users aged 35+, as the site shifts out of the college-age demographic it started with. Still, I’m not convinced (yet) that the platform, or others like it, can become hubs through which their users experience the web. Remember the hype over web portals? By opening up their platform to 3rd party developers, Facebook seeks to create the Web 2.0 version of one. Facebook has become a Web 2.0 darling, and how this story unfolds bears watching.

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